Sunday, November 23 - Halifax International Security Forum

Friday, November 21

Saturday, November 22

Sunday, November 23

7:00

5K Run with Canadian Minister of National Defence Rob Nicholson

LOCATION: Westin Lobby

9:00-10:15

Breakfast Sessions

10:30-11:45

Plenary 7:  Wanted: Food, Energy, Water – A FEW Good Resources On the record

Speakers

Executive Editor, Defense One

Mr. Kevin Baron

Vice Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy

Admiral Michelle Howard

President, Institute of Energy Policy

Mr. Vladimir Milov

Chief Energy Economist & Managing Director, ARC Financial Corporation

Mr. Peter Tertzakian

Access to renewable and non-renewable resources including energy resources, food and water, are central to geopolitical relations and realities, and were explored by the panelists in this session. Speakers discussed the trends and management of supply and demand – both real and perceived – of products on which people rely. Participants also discussed the outcomes of resource scarcity at the individual, organizational, national and regional levels in terms of cost and security. Panelists concluded with their opinions about future dynamics around resource requirements and sources.

“There are multiple challenges ahead, multiple investments to be made. … There is plenty of room for more work on energy efficiency … But I think as far as energy is concerned, I think there is plenty of room for optimism despite all the hard work that needs to be done.”

— Mr. Vladimir Milov, President, Institute of Energy Policy

“The paradox is that if you make energy systems more efficient, society will consume more energy. And that is a well-documented thing. So energy efficiency on its own is not a sufficient response to sustainability issues.”

— Mr. Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist & Managing Director, ARC Financial Corporation

“Every time in the history of energy, when you butt up against unsustainable issues, there are three factors that dictate it, and it is not any one of these factors, it’s the collusion of these factors; they are always the same. It’s environmental degradation, geopolitics and population growth, wealth, creation and excessive demand on resources and also combined with scarcity of the resources that you are using. And during these periods …what you have are periods of a lot of turmoil, turbulence; geopolitical issues become exacerbated. … I am actually technologically an optimist: that technology can take us much further than it has in the past …but in the near term, I am quite concerned about the geopolitical angle. The global geopolitical situation … is nothing short of ugly and that is curtailing investments.”

— Mr. Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist & Managing Director, ARC Financial Corporation

“If you take a look at the recent non-conventional boom in the oil and gas, it was pretty much driven by private initiative and to a large extent by smaller and medium sized companies without direct government interference. This is why my best advice to governments, if you want to non- conventional boom to continue: stay out of it.”

— Mr. Vladimir Milov, President, Institute of Energy Policy

“The free market has a very powerful way of fostering innovation, and we are in this period where we are seeing dramatic innovation in things like drilling completions, the ability to bring more oil and gas to surface at lower and lower costs.”

— Mr. Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist & Managing Director, ARC Financial Corporation

“Nobody actually looks at themselves in the mirror and says, ‘Actually it is our collective responsibility,’ because there is a big difference between conservation and energy efficiency. Conservation means being mindful about when you turn the lights on and off or what kind of vehicle you drive … and I think that the public is shirking responsibility. I think the governments have a responsibility to educate people. 75% of emissions are generated in the oil supply chain by driving vehicles. You talk about the oil sands, and it gets a bad rap and it is only like 10% of the omissions. The bulk of the omissions are in the habits of the people that use this stuff.”

— Mr. Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist & Managing Director, ARC Financial Corporation

“When we look at mass migration starting because of lack of food, lack of water, there are going to be neighboring countries that might not be able to absorb a mass migration and so the instability…we generally think about security in terms of potential conflict between nations but a lack of resource can be just as much the source of the conflict.”

— Adm. Michelle Howard, Vice Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy

“Last year was the first year in history in which more people around the world died from over-consumption of food and disease related to over consumption of food than from starvation or lack of food – so much for the world it running out of food. The problem of food has to do with management and distribution. Natural gas ties into food, energy.”

— Dr. Gal Luft, Co-Director, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security

“If you look at the OECD countries, the 28 wealthiest countries in the world, the energy consumption has flattened out, and many countries, including Germany, are in decline. So it can be done; it does take willingness on the part of the people, combined with policy, combined with recognizing you are making a big mess, which is one of the catalysts I mentioned. Environmental degredation is something that catalyzes a breaking point.”

— Mr. Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist & Managing Director, ARC Financial Corporation

“We have to stop thinking about renewables as a substitute to the big three: oil, gas, and coal, which dominate the energy balance and something that will be replaced with solar wind, whatever which would play similar roles. We have got to think about renewables as filling very specific niches, maybe not too large, like geothermal best fits for energy supply of remote north regions. Municipal waste is very good at providing energy for cities, wind and solar is very good sources for individual homes and rural areas, and so on. We have got to think about renewables for their specific niches and purposes, and this is why we can make them best fit into global development.”

— Mr. Vladimir Milov, President, Institute of Energy Policy

11:45-12:15

Coffee Break

12:15-13:30

Plenary 8:  The New Propagandists: The Battle for the Narrative On the record

Speakers

Senior Fellow, Homeland Security Policy Institute, George Washington University

Ms. Jeanne Meserve

Minister of Public Safety, Canada

The Hon. Steven Blaney

Former Prime Minister of Russia, Co-Leader, Republican Party of People’s Freedom

H.E. Mikhail Kasyanov

Chairman and CEO, Moby Group

Mr. Saad Mohseni

Executive Vice President for Worldwide Government, Legal, and Business Affairs, MacAndrews and Forbes Holdings, Inc.

The Hon. Frances Townsend

This panel’s discussion on propaganda was particularly timely given the use of the Forum’s social media hashtag #HISF2014 by ISIL promoters during the event. Focusing largely on the current narrative battlefields in Russia and Eastern Europe as well as Afghanistan, and with ISIL, panelists discussed successful forms and methods of message delivery, as well as whether if the most effective source was private or public. According to the panelists, winning the narrative battle is more than countering propaganda, it also means identifying and galvanizing the narrative of modernity and creating mechanisms to deliver information that counters terrorism and the promotion of violent, unlawful behavior.

“Those who contravene the law or commit violence have to face the full force of the law.”

— The Hon. Steven Blaney, Minister of Public Safety, Canada

“They call themselves ‘Twitter Jihadis.’ There are cells on the internet that distribute the propaganda and in real time – it was Thursday or Friday in the battle of Ramadi, they were distributing videos of the fight there. They were reporting on the weather and the way the weather impeded the coalition actions to have air support to Iraqi forces. …the Counter Extremism Project goes out, tries to identify those individuals who are disseminating the propaganda.”

— The Hon. Frances Townsend, Executive Vice President for Worldwide Government, Legal, and Business Affairs, MacAndrews and Forbes Holdings, Inc.

“You also have to look at the underlying situation. Some of these populations are receptive to the ISIS narrative because of either the sheer dominance of Iraq or various problems that the people have in other parts of the Middle East. So you have to also deal with the underlying situation. You cannot just win this through marketing alone. I think that you have to also address a lot of other bigger picture issues.”

— Mr. Saad Mohseni, Chairman and CEO, Moby Grou

“The unifying principle here is that, whether you’re talking about Russia or you’re talking about ISIS, we have to know that this [the narrative] is a battle space, just like physical battle space. And we must not permit it to be uncontested.”

— The Hon. Frances Townsend, Executive Vice President for Worldwide Government, Legal, and Business Affairs, MacAndrews and Forbes Holdings, Inc.

“I think we have to get to the core. We can express ideas. We are a democracy. We can have these debates in a free and open environment…But the bottom line is if you are willing to use violence, attack a symbol of a government and contravene the law and do it and purposely for an extremist or ideology, this is terrorism and our nation has to send a strong signal that this is not the Canadian way.”

— The Hon. Steven Blaney, Minister of Public Safety, Canada

“You have to have multiple efforts. You have to delegitimize, deglamourize ISIS and what they’re doing. You have to shame them. You have to see doubt … attempt to fragment the organization. But even before that, you have to address why these young people are attracted to ISIS.”

— Mr. Saad Mohseni, Chairman and CEO, Moby Group

“Russian propaganda works at the moment. And in fact, just the psychological poll shows that more than 80% support Putin’s policy vis-à-vis Ukraine, and Ukraine in particular. But that’s the issue of propaganda because we in Russia don’t have free media at all. We don’t have any single free media … this intensive propaganda … is effective and it works, not only for Russian population, but also abroad.”

— H.E. Mikhail Kaysanov, Former Prime Minister of Russia, Co-Leader, Republican Party of People’s Freedom

“Definitely we can do something … to create a flow of information. I think just for the United States, it’s important to keep funding of all those channels, like Radio Liberty and others, and potentially to be engaged more with the Russian civil society organizations which can distribute information through social media… What they can do just to support truth. True information. That is the most important thing. … the most awful thing that could happen is if just the West would give up on Russia: close their eyes.”

— H.E. Mikhail Kaysanov, Former Prime Minister of Russia, Co-Leader, Republican Party of People’s Freedom

“I think the single most important thing we need to discuss as Muslims is what does Islam represent? To characterize this. People talk about moderate Muslims. Who are we? And what do we believe in? The debate needs to come from the Islamic countries, and I think this is very serious, that we need to actually look within and to ask ourselves as to what we believe in.”

— Mr. Saad Mohseni, Chairman and CEO, Moby Group

“It’s difficult for a foreign government, which is not Muslim, to define what it means to be a Muslim. That’s why I think it has to develop from within. It needs to be debated. I think we need to have some debates over the next few years. It needs to be discussed. We need to have forums. It needs to be encouraged.”

— Mr. Saad Mohseni, Chairman and CEO, Moby Group

13:30-14:30

Closing Lunch

LOCATION: Atlantic Ballroom

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One thing about running with the military, they go fast. We always look forward to the annual Sunday morning 5km #run. Will you be accepting the challenge at #HISF2019? pic.twitter.com/v8a3oYiMAZ

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Happy Thanksgiving to our Canadian hosts, especially those of you celebrating in #Halifax. Every year we are thankful for your generous hospitality. #HISF2019 pic.twitter.com/ohbHpEUawN

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